Fitch Ratings, London, has upgraded Turkmenistan’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB-' from 'B+'. The Outlook is Stable.
The key factors that contributed to the upgrade were a strengthened sovereign balance sheet and exceptionally large external reserves. Turkmenistan’s already exceptionally strong sovereign balance sheet has further improved, and Fitch has greater confidence that this will be sustained, the agency said.
“Fitch forecasts sovereign net foreign assets (SNFA) to increase to 55.9% of GDP by end-2024 from 54.7% in 2023 (and 45.1% in 2022), the highest in its peer group,” the agency said in a statement on its website on Friday, August 2.
“Turkmenistan’s foreign exchange reserves continue to grow, with Fitch estimating them to be close to 55 months of current external payments, compared with a ‘BB’ median of 4.5 months, the highest among the sovereigns we assess,” the analysts noted.
Fitch forecasts further improvement in external liquidity, with external debt servicing falling to 6.9% of current external receipts in 2025 from 8.5% in 2023, well below the current ‘BB’ median of 12.2%, the experts say.
Fitch assigned Turkmenistan a Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'B+' with a Stable Outlook in August 2021. In February 2023, the agency revised the Outlook to Positive from Stable and affirmed it at 'B+'. Fitch affirmed Turkmenistan at this status in August 2024 and February 2024.
Credit ratings are coded as 'A', 'B', 'C', with 'A' at the top of the scale. Fitch's 'B' register progresses from B-, B, B+, then BB-, BB, BB+ and so on to BBB+, above which the A register begins.
The public rating is used by banks and other organizations, including those who want to get an independent assessment of the possibility of investing in the country.
In October 2023, it was reported that the State Bank for Foreign Economic Affairs of Turkmenistan will expand its cooperation with the International Agency Fitch Ratings.
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