Expert Background Ahead of the Strategic Summit

ORIENT continues to expand regional analytical dialogue by publishing expert opinions that are most relevant to the foreign policy agenda. This article by Tajik political scientist Sherali Rizoyon is published on the eve of the second Central Asia–Russia Summit (October 9) in Dushanbe, where the heads of state of six countries will discuss security, counterterrorism, and transnational challenges. In the context of the upcoming strategic negotiations, it is crucial to understand the underlying factors and national traditions that shape the foreign policies of the Central Asian states.

We are publishing a material originally published on the analytical portal "Central Asia Cronos" (Cronos.asia). This resource specializes in highly professional forecasts and analysis, covering politics, economics, and finance in Central Asia, China, and Afghanistan. Sherali Rizoyon, a political scientist from Tajikistan, invites readers to explore the concept of "strategic culture": what it is, how it influences regional processes, and where the line lies between foreign policy declarations and actual actions. Our colleagues' expert insights will help provide a deeper understanding of the foundations of key decision-making in the region.

Authorship and Source

Author: Sherali Rizoyon, political scientist (Tajikistan), Analytical Portal "Central Asia Cronos" (Cronos.asia)

STRATEGIC CULTURE IN CENTRAL ASIA: THE LINE BETWEEN REALITY AND ILLUSION

Strategic culture in Central Asia has its own formulas and responses to many of the problems and challenges facing the modern world. Since humanity has remained unchanged since time immemorial, and similar problems are observed at all stages, and the cyclical nature of international relations, in various variations, continues today, we can reflect on existing formulas and strategies that can be applied in foreign policy.

The application of these strategies is impossible without an understanding of the region's entire cultural heritage. Two approaches currently exist: some argue that state formations in Central Asia are recent and view strategic culture in this context. Others, based on written sources, assert that the peoples of our region have a long history of living under state formations. Therefore, based on one of these two visions, one can come to different results.

Given this circumstance, it is appropriate to examine practical examples found in scholarly studies of the region's states, as well as in international research and analytical publications on Central Asia.

Historical Origins of Strategic Culture

Historically, Central Asia was a crossroads between East and West, North and South. There is ample evidence to support this assertion. Many researchers associate the rise and fall of Central Asia with the Great Silk Road. The discovery of new sea routes diminished the region's relevance for global trade, and since the 16th century, Central Asia has been marginalized in international political and economic processes. In the modern world, Central Asia is gradually becoming an active participant in projects proposed by external actors for the region. Therefore, it can be argued that Central Asia is reviving its status as a “crossroads” in transregional relations.

The sources of strategic culture in Central Asia are primarily based on historical memory. Three key aspects can be identified.

First, the experience and legacy of previous states in the region. Central Asia was once home to successful states and empires. The experience and legacy formed by these states today serve as a powerful source for understanding Central Asian geopolitics, the role our region played in the past, and how this can be recreated.

Second, the Persian-Turkic origins in the region's history and present. When discussing the foundations of strategic culture and highlighting successful examples of regional symbiosis, the Persian-Turkic origins come to the forefront both in the past and present of Central Asia. Statehood, the construction of national statehood, and the definition of its contours in our region are based on this historical legacy. Thus, two successful examples of regional consolidation can be reflected upon:

• Sogdian-Turkic relations in politics, trade, and culture during the reign of the Turkic Khaganate;

• Persian-Turkic bilingualism and literary ties, which began during the Karakhanid dynasty in the late 10th – early 11th centuries.

Third, the Islamic factor. The vast majority of residents of all five countries in the region adhere to a single Sunni madhhab, i.e., the Hanafi madhhab of the Maturidi school. There are unifying elements in the form of the Naqshbandi tariqa of Sufism, shared books, common religious saints, common religious practices, etc., i.e., a common religious and ideological space.

All this emphasizes that, regardless of how we perceive the region today, it is impossible to separate it from its shared historical, cultural, and political context. Contemporary Dimensions of Cooperation

Moving on to an analysis of the current situation, it's important to identify the foundations of the strategic culture of Central Asian countries today. This can be viewed in three key dimensions.

First, bilateral cooperation: strategic partnership and alliance. Over the past few years, countries in the region have taken steps to establish strategic partnerships and alliances with each other. For example, Tajikistan has signed strategic partnership documents with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as an alliance agreement with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It is hoped that a similar document will be signed between Dushanbe and Bishkek in the near future, as both countries have resolved the border issue.

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are actively developing strategic partnerships and alliances, having signed corresponding agreements with other Central Asian states. There has been a very significant breakthrough in bilateral relations between the countries of the region.

Second, intraregional cooperation: efforts and steps towards cooperation. Since 2018, we have witnessed the adoption of significant measures and steps towards regional cooperation. Much has been accomplished in this regard today. In addition to consultative meetings of the region's heads of state, other formats have been launched: meetings of foreign ministers, security council secretaries, transport ministers, and culture ministers, as well as forums of university rectors, scientists, and researchers.

In recent years, many events (conferences, forums, etc.) have been held in the five-party format. We hope that the next Consultative Meeting, to be held in Tashkent in the fall of 2025, will take another step toward strengthening intraregional cooperation.

Third, transregional cooperation: the strategy of external powers and its implications for Central Asia. An example of such cooperation is the "5+1" format, which currently includes 10 states and associations on one side and Central Asian countries on the other. In 2004, Japan became the first country to launch a multilateral cooperation format with Central Asian states. This format has subsequently been used by the European Union and South Korea (2007), the United States (2015), India (2018), Italy (2019), Russia and China (2020), the Arab states of the Persian Gulf (2022), and Germany (2023).

To date, within the framework of this format, summits of heads of state have been held with China (25.01.2022 via videoconference and 19.05.2023 in Xi'an), India (27.01.2022 via videoconference), Russia (14.10.2022 in Astana), the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (19.07.2023 in Jeddah), the United States (19.09.2023 in New York), Germany (29.09.2023 in Berlin), and the European Union (04.04.2025 in Samarkand).

Summits of heads of state with Japan and Italy, which were postponed due to events in these countries, are expected to be held in the near future within this format. It can be safely assumed that the interaction of Central Asian states with the aforementioned countries and regions has its own arithmetic component, specific features and dynamics of development, as well as geopolitical consequences. Thus, these three key dimensions reveal the geopolitical specificity and trajectory of Central Asia's future development.

The Triad of Central Asian Strategic Culture

What constitutes Central Asia's strategic culture today? Based on a study of the practical approaches of Central Asian countries and their behavior in current international relations, we can identify a triad that reflects the essence of the region's strategic culture.

First, a multi-vector policy, which is primarily aimed at maintaining strategic balance. We understand that over the past 100–200 years, traditional countries with enduring interests in Central Asia have emerged, while new players have recently renewed their attention to the region and intend to develop relations. Implementing a multi-vector policy and maintaining strategic balance minimizes all possible challenges and risks to security and stability, particularly for the foreign policies of Central Asian countries. They also create a number of new windows of opportunity that countries can exploit to the benefit of their national economies.

Second, neutrality toward all processes unfolding in global politics. All countries in the region maintain neutrality in assessing the international situation, not supporting any side in the conflict. At the same time, the leaders of Central Asian states call for maintaining peace and resolving problems through diplomatic means. This is because neutrality or maintaining strategic silence allows the region to minimize risks and threats and fosters the creation of new potential opportunities.

Third, the "weathering the storm" approach (maintaining strategic caution in regional and transregional relations, and in modern international relations in general) also minimizes challenges and risks and creates new opportunities.

The region's comprehensive approach aims to re-establish Central Asia as a "crossroads" between East and West, North and South, and to create conditions and opportunities to prevent the region from falling into a strategic impasse. Avoiding a strategic impasse and reclaiming its position as a "crossroads" between all surrounding countries and regions reflects the existing strategic culture of Central Asia.

P.S. This text is part of a collective article prepared following the results of the foreign session "Strategic Culture of Central Asian Countries: Formation Factors" of the IX International Scientific and Practical Conference "Russia and the World: Dialogues - 2025. Strategies" based at the Center for Russian Studies of the KNU named after J. Balasagyn (Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan).

The original article was published on the website Cronos.asia