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This July will likely rank among the five hottest on record in Ashgabat. The average temperature to date is +33.4°C, which is above the climatic norm of +31.7°C.

The hottest July on record was in 2018, with a monthly average temperature of +35.2°C. This was followed by 2019 and 2021, both at +33.7°C. In 2023, the temperature was +33.4°C, while in 2015 it was +33.2°C, and in 1983 it was +33.1°C. It is notable that almost all of the hottest years have occurred within the last decade.

Despite the high average, Ashgabat did not experience extremely high maximum temperatures this July. The absolute maximum of +46.8°C was recorded in 2021, whereas this year's peak was only +43.2°C.

Forecasts for the month were also inaccurate. Based on global climate models, specifically GFSv2, it was predicted that July would be similar to June, with frequent northwestern intrusions. This led to the possibility that this July could have been the least hot of the last abnormally warm decade.

However, thermal depression became the dominant synoptic process, resulting in higher temperatures. The frequency of northwestern intrusions was low, and they were weak. This continues the trend of abnormally high temperatures seen in recent years.

ORIENT

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