Oriented on making people closer

COP26 Regional Ambassador for Europe, Central Asia, Turkey and Iran David Moran arrived in Ashgabat on a working visit, during which he took part in the Youth Climate Conference. During the forum, a British diplomat said:

It’s a great pleasure to be back in Turkmenistan. Much has changed in your country since I first visited nearly 30 years ago. Not least the emergence of the “climate generation” – who are keenly aware of the importance of fighting against climate change.

For Small Island Developing States, emissions present an existential threat. In Central Asia, glacier melt places water security at risk across the region including Turkmenistan.

In fact, the stark conclusion of the recent invaluable reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change proves that we all need to cut emissions to have any hope of meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting average global temperatures to 1.5 degrees centigrade by the end of the century.

It now cannot be denied that human activity has led to our fast changing climate, and the severe damage it causes. Despite all the warnings, global emissions continue to rise.

My visit to Greenland a couple of months ago coincided with news that a major sea-level rise from the melting of the Greenlandic ice cap is now inevitable. Elsewhere, research showed that we are close to other multiple tipping points around the world – potentially combining to have an exponentially serious impact.

The arithmetic difference between the numbers 1.5, 2 and 3 is small, but in terms of the impact of average rising temperatures, even a sliver of a degree makes a difference. Let’s remind ourselves of what is at stake.

Above 2 degrees C we could lose most coral reefs. By 3 degrees we could lose the Amazon.

Even at 1.5 we could expect a large increase in the numbers of people exposed to flooding, and a rise in the percentage of land-based species at risk of extinction.

There is just about enough time to avoid the worst, but only if we take immediate, radical action this decade to reduce our emissions, as well as strengthening our resilience.

The decisions we make now on climate and energy policies will determine our future, and we have to get it right.

The Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact are powerful examples of what a global consensus can achieve.

The world has committed to 1.5 degrees. Glasgow’s top mission was to get closer to that goal.

Expectations for COP26 were very high and world leaders came knowing that settling for the lower common denominator was not an option.

In the end, nearly 200 countries overcame the practical and geopolitical obstacles and chose high ambition.

The Glasgow Climate Pact was genuinely historic. It endorsed the science and recognised the urgency of tackling climate change.

It made specific commitments to cut emissions, protect nature and vulnerable people, increase finance including to support adaptation, and to drive just energy transitions, using innovative financing models as the one agreed for South Africa.

For the first time, UNFCCC official texts covered fossil fuels and especially coal.

The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero announced that central banks and private financial institutions responsible for over $130 trillion of assets are moving to realign much more towards global Net Zero, where the amount of greenhouse gas added is no more than the amount taken away.

COP26 increased the focus on adaptation, with record financial pledges and progress on loss and damage. Many countries signed up to ambitious commitments on Forest and Land Use, Accelerating the Transition to Zero Emission Vehicles, Just Transition, Sustainable Agriculture and other key issues.

Glasgow is rightly recognised as one of the most significant COPs. It drove many new commitments to move the Paris Agreement agenda forward. However, we can expect the update report which the UN will issue just before COP27 to confirm that the latest NDC commitments are insufficient to halve emissions by 2030.

Some have argued that Net Zero is an unaffordable distraction when the world is facing economic and energy shocks. Such thinking must be challenged. Governments do have a responsibility to stimulate economic growth, promote energy and food security and protect vulnerable citizens.

But it is a fallacy that climate action comes at the price of economic growth. It is not a binary choice. Between 1990 and 2019, the UK achieved record clean growth, reducing emissions by 44% while growing the economy by 78%.

IRENA has concluded that every $1 spent on energy transition would bring benefits of between $3 and $8 - that translates to cleaner air, cheaper power, investment, and jobs.

Turkmenistan is in a very good place to benefit, with your massive solar and wind potential capable of covering all of your energy needs from renewable sources by 2050, cutting greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector to zero.

The International Energy Agency has also said that 40% of current methane emissions in your country could easily be captured and used to generate power and produce high value-added products read for export.

Methane is 25 times as intensive as carbon, so increased action to plug leads would bring big climate and financial benefits – in Turkmenistan’s case perhaps saving $6 billion.

The green transition is already happening. Businesses want it to happen.

Technological development has accelerated and the economics have changed. A recent study has shown that investments in renewables have seen a 367% greater return than fossil fuels over the last decade.

Policy responses to current energy and socio-economic pressures cannot be at the price of abdicating our climate responsibilities. We have no right to sacrifice the future for the present.

The best way to ensure this is to mainstream climate policy across government.

Glasgow was about inspiration and commitment. COP27 will be all about implementation and credibility. The UK, Egypt and other key partners are pressing for immediate action. The world needs to see that climate finance is becoming easier to access. COP27 will also focus on further progress on support for vulnerable countries and loss and damage, drawing on the Glasgow Loss and Damage Dialogue and commitment to double adaptation finance.

Success cannot be taken for granted.

We cannot backtrack. COP27 must reinforce and build on the Glasgow Climate Pact, preparing for next year’s Global Stocktake of climate ambition at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates.

Citizens around the world have already made a big difference and should continue to inspire governments and businesses, providing energy and ideas.

During my travels I frequently come across ordinary people who don’t see the urgency of tackling climate change. Some dismiss the whole agenda as a “luxury or First World problem”. Others are deeply concerned about air pollution, floods and droughts but don’t connect extreme weather trends to climate change.

Context and impacts differ from country to country, but the threat to our planet is shared by us all. Advocacy must also stress that climate action brings many opportunities.

Finally, does individual action make any difference? Emphatically, yes – just as every sliver of a degree that we can reduce global temperature rises matters, individual contributions are increasing adding up. And inspiring. It’s not an easy road but we have to stick with it. It’s just too important.

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