Airbus ramps up aircraft production, focusing on growing demand in Asia
The European aircraft giant Airbus expects that air carriers and leasing companies will place orders for 40.85 thousand new civil aircraft within 20 years.
This figure from its most recent forecast of the global aviation market is noticeably higher than the 39.50 thousand aircraft that the manufacturer predicted a year earlier. This difference is mainly caused by a slower-than-expected recovery in the pace of production (which leads to the postponement of deliveries to a later date) and the expectation that a large wave of write-offs of aircraft that have been delayed in operation due to the current shortage of new ones is approaching.
Of the total number, about 32.6 thousand aircraft will be narrow—bodied, and 8.2 thousand will be wide-bodied. The construction of 32,600 narrow-body aircraft in 20 years is equivalent to the average monthly production volume of 135 aircraft for the entire global industry. Given Airbus' ambitions to achieve a monthly production rate of 75 aircraft for the A320neo family and 14 for the A220 in the coming years, it turns out that American Boeing, Chinese COMAC, Brazilian Embraer and Russian UAC combined account for 46 aircraft per month.
Airbus assumes that the cumulative annual growth rate of air transportation over the next 20 years will be 3.6. Asian countries, including China, will receive about 19 thousand aircraft, which is almost half of the total global production, and this reflects the expected significant growth in air transportation in the region and the fact that China does not really favor age-related aircraft.
According to Airbus forecast, the highest growth rate of air transportation on domestic lines will be in India — 7.4% per year. Other domestic markets in Asia's emerging economies are expected to grow by 6%, while domestic demand in China will grow by 5.3% annually.
For comparison, domestic demand in the US is expected to grow by only 2.1%. According to the forecast, flights within Western Europe will increase by 1.5% per year, and transatlantic air travel — by 2.3% per year.
Airbus predicts the delivery of 2,510 cargo aircraft in the next 20 years. Of these, in addition to new vessels, 1,600 will be converted from passenger ships.
Turkmenistan Airlines has recently started operating two Airbus A330-200P2F cargo aircraft received in March and April under a contract signed in January 2021.
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