ORIENTIR | April 22. After a period of silence—occasioned by objective circumstances—our ORIENTIR column is back on the air. And what do we see?

Morning trading sessions in Tokyo and Hong Kong opened with a 0.6% drop in indices, following news that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance had canceled a visit to Pakistan, where crucial negotiations were scheduled to take place.

The "energy endgame" in the Persian Gulf has definitively morphed into a hybrid thriller, in which political ultimatums intertwine with outright piracy.

By April 22, Donald Trump had shifted his tactic of a "rapid reopening" to a strategy of the "slow strangulation" of his recalcitrant adversary, announcing an indefinite extension of the truce—a move that, according to Bloomberg analysts, has proven to be nothing more than a facade for a total naval blockade.

Thus, the chaos in the strait seemed to mirror the disorder within Trump’s own mind. Yet, one gets the impression that his contradictory statements are made quite deliberately—intended to confound his opponents, who will eventually abandon any attempt to logically decipher his true intentions. It is, in a sense, a page straight out of Talleyrand, who famously quipped that "language was given to man to conceal his thoughts."

However, the situation is positively farcical: to declare a blockade of a gulf that is, to all intents and purposes, already "successfully" blockaded. The Iranians call it the "Persian Gulf," while the Arabs call it the "Arabian Gulf." Had Eskimos inhabited that region, they would, in all likelihood, have dubbed this fjord the "Eskimo Gulf." But let us return to the matter at hand...

Trump’s new "maritime trap" has already snapped shut a considerable distance away from the Persian Gulf; Pentagon officials have confirmed the seizure of the tanker Tiffany in the Indian Ocean. Despite having changed its flag in an attempt at subterfuge, the vessel was intercepted by U.S. special forces on charges of transporting oil subject to sanctions.

The vessel was carrying over a million barrels of oil, and its seizure has already triggered a surge in global freight rates. New Delhi has officially dispatched two additional frigates to the Arabian Sea to safeguard its tankers. Thus, the sea is rapidly transforming into a zone where it is every man for himself.

This, presumably, serves as a signal to the entire world that any attempt to circumvent Washington’s prohibitions will now be punished by the seizure of cargo—effectively turning maritime trade into a game of "Russian roulette."

This is the name given to a duel in which one or more cartridges are loaded into a revolver, provided that empty chambers remain in the cylinder. The duelists then take turns placing the muzzle of the pistol against their own heads and pulling the trigger—continuing until the revolver finally fires.

A horrific death, self-inflicted. Figuratively speaking, "Russian roulette" is a term used to describe potentially dangerous actions with an outcome that is difficult to predict, as well as to denote a form of bravery bordering on recklessness or futility.

How closely this mirrors harsh reality...

Remarkably, the Strait of Hormuz has today, in a sense, become a testing ground for "digital weaponry." According to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the deployment of electronic warfare countermeasures has plunged navigation within the strait into chaos—a situation that crypto-scammers have skillfully exploited.

According to reports from specialized industry portals such as CoinDesk, fraudsters—posing as official communication channels—are extorting payments in Bitcoin from tanker captains in exchange for safe passage through the strait. According to maritime agencies, those who fell for these ruses subsequently came under fire, becoming victims of this deception.

Companies specializing in maritime risk management (such as Marisks) have issued official warnings to captains regarding these fraudulent demands for passage fees in Bitcoin.

However, what alarmed Washington most of all is the fact that Tehran is officially accepting payment for passage through the strait in euros or yuan. And this constitutes an assault on the very thing Americans hold most sacred—the dollar!

It is said that the only thing Americans ever invented was the dollar. Having devised it, they used the dollar to buy everything else—wise scientists and skilled craftsmen, intractable politicians and bohemian artistic talents, and so on.

…The global chaos unfolding within that narrow strait (whose waters were partitioned between Iran and Oman by a 1974 treaty) was instantly reflected in market prices. For instance, due to disruptions in shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the production costs of global industrial giants surged by a quarter, while Europe’s major ports are now reporting delays in the delivery of vital cargo.

While Hamburg moves urgently to ramp up the production of naval drones to safeguard shipping lanes, Japan and South Korea are shifting into a mode of strict resource conservation.

During Asian trading hours, Brent crude firmly established itself above the $101 mark. In London, after repeatedly testing perilous price highs, Brent finally stabilized at $97.43.

The market finally breathed a sigh of relief following Trump’s announcement of an extended truce—made "at Pakistan’s request"—yet lingering uncertainty and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are preventing prices from falling any further.

Conversely, insurance giants—including Lloyd’s—have, according to experts, hiked premiums for safe passage to levels that render the maritime route economically unviable.

Against this backdrop, Beijing has begun rolling out its own secure financial infrastructure. According to reports from the financial news agency Reuters, China is actively expanding its Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), where transaction volumes are already setting new records.

This represents an attempt to establish an "energy shield" and a direct settlement system—the so-called "petroyuan"—which, according to forecasts by J.P. Morgan experts, would allow tankers to traverse the strait using secure codes, thereby bypassing the Western financial system.

Thus, the world has come to realize that no "digital codes" or promises from OPEC+ can serve as a substitute for actual fuel—fuel that is currently trapped in a "maritime snare"…

However—to address a pressing matter: today’s events have conclusively confirmed that when the sea transforms into a zone of risk and chaos, the land-based pragmatism of Central Asia emerges as a far more reliable foundation for stability. Be that as it may, pipelines cannot be "hacked" or seized in international waters.

The tragedy in the Gulf merely accelerates the realization that the future of Eurasian stability is being forged on solid ground—both literally and figuratively.

Bekdurdy AMANSARYEV