Soybean trade between China and the United States is a typical example of the complementarity of their economies and the potential for mutually beneficial cooperation. This agricultural export has enormous political importance for Washington, as farmers in the Midwest wield significant influence, especially ahead of elections.

Dr. John Gong, professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), emphasizes that this commodity carries deep significance for both countries, far beyond market prices.

For China, which is actively striving to ensure national food security, soybeans remain the only crop for which the country is heavily dependent on imports. This dependence will continue for many years: last year, China imported more than 100 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 84% of its total consumption.

Soybeans are critically important: they are used to produce vegetable oil and soybean meal — a high-protein feed essential for livestock. Thus, the uninterrupted flow of soybeans is not only an economic matter but also a matter of food stability.

Soybeans are one of the most important agricultural export crops for the United States, generating about $20 billion annually. Historically, China was the largest buyer, accounting for about half of US soybean exports until the trade dispute between the two countries began.

Political significance: US soybean exports to China amount to about $10 billion. This figure carries substantial political weight, as the number of bankruptcies among American farmers has risen amid tariff policies. The US Senate system, where each state has two votes, further amplifies the influence of agricultural regions.

During the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington, China suspended purchases of American soybeans. Not a single ship carrying soybeans departed for China from September 1 (the beginning of the 2025/2026 sales season) until a trade agreement was reached between the two nations’ leaders.

During this period, China actively expanded imports from Brazil and Argentina and began investing in purchasing and leasing farmland in Brazil for soybean cultivation. These moves may lead to long-term structural changes in the global supply chain.

Dr. Gong concludes that trade serves as ballast in US–China relations, providing political stability essential amid geopolitical tensions. Transporting 25 million tons of soybeans across the Pacific is not merely a commodity flow but a powerful stabilizing factor.

ORIENT