Fitch Ratings Agency has appropriated to Turkmenistan a long-term rating of issuer default rating (IDR) in foreign currency at level «B +». The forecast - "stable", as is informed by the agency site.
The status "stable" reflects forecast of Fitch that the prices for energy carriers and parameters of macroeconomic policy will correspond as a whole to the balanced budgetary and external accounts.
Gas production doubling during the period from 2009 to 2015 has supported the model of economy operated by the state, and has allowed the authorities to create budgetary and external buffer reserves, as is marked in the agency comment.
According to the State Statistics Committee, growth of real GDP fluctuated from 6,2 % to 6,5 % during the period from 2015 for 2019 and decreased by 5,9 % in 2020. Growth in 2020 was affected by influence of the pandemic on gas sales to China and transportation, analysts mark.
Within five years till 2020 export of natural gas made up 60 % of general export revenues and oil and petrochemical products - 27 more %. In 2020 export fell by 32 % because of decrease in volumes and the prices for gas.
Fitch expects improvement of the account of current operations in connection with increase in the export prices and volumes of energy carriers. Deliveries to China and growth of export to Russia (which was renewed in 2019) will support export of gas in 2021. The increase in manufacture of petrochemical production and other oil products of production (in process of manufacture escalating at new factories) also will increase export of hydrocarbons, Fitch considers.
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