Demographic portrait of Central Asia: High fertility amid global decline
Central Asian countries are showing strong fertility rates, standing out against the backdrop of a global downward trend. According to World Bank data for 2023, the region as a whole shows relatively high rates of the average number of children born to one woman. This creates a unique demographic landscape that influences the socio-economic development of Central Asian countries.
The high fertility rate in the region is associated with a whole range of factors, including the age structure of the population, cultural traditions, the level of urbanization, and the availability of social infrastructure. While developed countries and even some of their neighbors are experiencing a noticeable decline in fertility, most Central Asian countries maintain rates that contribute to population growth.
The situation in Central Asia and its neighbors:
World Bank data for 2023 show the following picture of the average number of children per woman (total fertility rate) in the countries of the region and some of its larger neighbors:
Uzbekistan: 3.5 children
Tajikistan: 3.1 children
Kazakhstan: 3.0 children
Turkmenistan: 2.7 children
Kyrgyzstan: 2.7 children
By comparison, such a large neighbor as Russia has a significantly lower rate of only 1.4 children per woman. These figures contrast markedly with fertility rates in a number of other countries around the world, where they have dropped to minimal values. For example, in Japan, on average, 1.2 children are born per woman, while in territories such as South Korea, Hong Kong, Macau and Puerto Rico, the rate does not reach even one child. Low fertility is also typical for China, Singapore and Ukraine (about 1 child per woman).
At the same time, the highest birth rates in the world are traditionally recorded in the poorest countries of Africa (Somalia, Chad, Niger - more than 6 children per woman) and in countries such as Afghanistan (almost 5 children per woman). Experts note that it is developing countries that make the main contribution to the current growth of the Earth's population.
Significance for the region:
The relatively high birth rate in Central Asia means that the countries of the region retain a young age structure of the population. This is a potential advantage in terms of the availability of labor resources in the future, but also poses challenges for states to develop the social sphere: education, health care, and the creation of new jobs.
Amid a global decline in the average number of births (from 5.3 children per woman half a century ago to 2.2 today), the countries of Central Asia retain demographic potential, which will play an important role in their further development in the coming decades.
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