Oil vs. Electromobiles: what holds the future?
May 27, 2018 | 11:15 |1720
Against the backdrop of alternating and falling oil prices, OPEC's efforts to reduce the world's production of "black gold" and the instability of the oil market, Bloomberg New Energy Finance published a report "Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018", which resulted in statistics on the distribution of electric vehicles in the world and the forecast expansion of this market. According to Bloomberg, in the next 15 years electric cars will be more affordable than cars with an internal combustion engine. Already this year, sales of electric vehicles have exceeded one million. And by 2020, public transport will almost completely become "electric."Maya AMANMURADOVA
The reasons for such popularity of electric vehicles are in reducing the costs of enterprises for the production of batteries, in increasing the model range and, most importantly, in active state support for "clean" transport. All over the world, bills for the restriction on the purchase and operation of cars with engines running on gasoline or diesel fuel are being developed and approved. The flagship in the struggle for clean air is China. Experts suggest that by 2025 50% of the market of electric vehicles will fall to the Celestial Empire.
All this leads to a "boom" in the sales of electric vehicles: by the year 2025 it is planned to sell 11 million electric cars, by 2030 30 million and by 2040 60 million cars. According to Bloomberg, by 2040 there will be more than half a billion electric vehicles traveling around the planet.
Of course, the electric car market is directly connected to the oil market, and the growth of one will contribute to the decline of the second, respectively. According to Bloomberg, by 2040 oil will fall in price, and its use will decrease. Demand, of course, will still be high, but its decline and gradual complete disappearance is inevitable.
Although the international rating agency Fitch Ratings is more modest in its calculations (in their opinion, the electric vehicle fleet will grow to only 250 million electric cars by 2040), and it predicts a lack of growth in demand for oil.
"In accordance with the baseline scenario, the peak demand for oil will be in the year 2029. But this demand will be "even", and in 2040 as a whole will not change in comparison with today. "
The largest oil companies are already taking steps to diversify production with a focus on natural gas, petrochemicals and alternative energy. In the future, the impact of this factor will only increase.
