IMF: Global economy remains resilient but faces risks from inflation, debt and AI investment

The global economy has proved more resilient than many expected, but persistent inflation, high debt-servicing costs and large-scale investment in artificial intelligence are creating new sources of uncertainty. According to the International Monetary Fund, the outlook will depend on countries’ ability to sustain growth while containing mounting financial risks.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Sunday that the global economy faces a number of risks that could slow growth despite its continued resilience.

Earlier this month, the IMF forecast global growth at 3.0 percent in 2026, down from 3.5 percent in 2025. Despite the conflict in the Middle East, economic activity has remained resilient, with technology-driven activity helping to cushion the impact, according to the fund.

Speaking at a special session of the Qatar Economic Forum in New York ahead of the UN General Assembly, Georgieva warned that the resilience of the global economy has not eliminated risks that could further weigh on growth. “Inflation is persistent. We do not expect a quick resolution. And that means many central banks will have to tighten monetary policy,” she said.

The fight to restore price stability has also increased the cost of servicing debt, Georgieva said. While the need for fiscal consolidation is widely recognized, she noted that current measures remain insufficient. The IMF chief also highlighted risks related to leverage, or large-scale borrowing, and cyclical financing, in which funds move between interconnected companies involved in AI investment.

“If AI disappoints, because we have such high expectations, if they are not met, the disappointment could potentially lead to a shock to the system,” she warned. According to Georgieva, the risks associated with AI financing are “mainly concentrated in the United States,” although companies in Asia and Europe are also part of the AI supply chain.

The IMF’s next World Economic Outlook report, expected in October, is likely to show that these risks remain elevated. “Growth hovering around 3 percent is a tremendous achievement, given all the shocks that we have experienced,” Georgieva said. She also cited the rapid global response to energy supply shocks as a reason for optimism.

“Although there is a lot of talk about a fragmented world, and indeed, it is less united, it is still a world in which we are interdependent and cooperate,” Georgieva said. “We have to be careful and prudent. Risks are high, and uncertainty is the new normal,” she added.

As reported by CCTV+, the IMF expects global growth to remain around 3 percent while warning that inflation, debt burdens and investment in artificial intelligence continue to pose significant risks.