IEA lowers 2026 global oil demand forecast amid US-Iran talks deadlock
Oil remains the lifeblood of the global economy, and any disruption to its supply is instantly reflected in prices, inventories and market sentiment. Geopolitics plays no less a role here than geology: negotiations, conflicts and sanctions can delay the normalisation of supplies for years. In such conditions, forecasts become not just numbers but indicators of alarm.
In its September oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a decline in global oil demand of 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, which is 940,000 barrels per day more than its previous estimate. Global oil production in August fell by 1.6 mb/d compared with the previous month to 100.1 mb/d, as more than 10 mb/d of production in Persian Gulf countries remained suspended amid heightened security risks, the report said.
Global observed oil inventories fell by another 95 million barrels in August, bringing the cumulative decline since February to 507 million barrels, or an average of 2.8 mb/d. Seaborne oil shipments also fell by 65 million barrels as tanker movements from the Middle East resumed. The IEA reported that benchmark oil prices jumped to their highest level since May as talks between the United States and Iran on ending the war in the Middle East remain deadlocked amid renewed fighting.
Inventories have so far played a crucial role in balancing the market, the IEA said, warning that reserves are shrinking and the global refining system is operating at its limit. It stressed the urgent need to resolve conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to prevent further tightening of the oil market and a decline in demand.
As reported by CCTV+, the IEA's downward revision reflects growing market concerns over the protracted nature of geopolitical conflicts and their impact on energy supplies. The agency's call to resolve crises underscores that oil market stability is impossible without political de-escalation.
