OPEC again lowers forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026

Oil remains the lifeblood of the global economy, and forecasts are its barometer. When they are revised downward month after month, it signals not only numbers but also profound shifts in global demand and growing uncertainty.

This is the fifth consecutive month that OPEC has lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast, bringing it to 1.17 million bpd in May, 970,000 bpd in June, 780,000 bpd in July and 580,000 bpd in August. The data was published in OPEC's latest monthly oil market report, which takes into account economic growth trends and current challenges, including the economic impact of geopolitical tensions, renewed inflationary pressure and continued uncertainty over US trade tariff policy.

Despite lower forecasts for 2026, the report continues to revise its 2027 forecasts upward, according to which world oil demand is expected to grow by about 2.4 million bpd year-on-year, compared with the August estimate of 2.2 million bpd year-on-year. According to the report published on Thursday, the upward revision is driven by expectations of increased demand in both Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and non-OECD countries.

As reported by CCTV+, OPEC's downward revision for 2026 reflects growing market concerns about instability in the global economy and the impact of geopolitical factors. At the same time, the upward revision for 2027 indicates continued long-term optimism regarding oil demand, especially in developing countries.