European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist until 2027
12.8 million barrels per day — the largest supply gap in history, 20% of global supply cut off, Europe imports 97% of its oil. Even if the strait reopens, recovery will take months. Jet fuel inventories in Europe are already running dangerously low.
As reported by CCTV+, the global oil market will remain imbalanced through 2027 despite any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has severely disrupted the strait, causing the largest energy supply shock in history. In 2025, about 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of petroleum products passed through the strait daily — roughly 20 percent of global supply. Since shipping was disrupted, the world has faced a daily shortfall of 12.8 million barrels — the largest supply gap on record.
Even if the strait reopens soon, restarting oil fields and redeploying tankers will take months, and the global oil market imbalance is expected to continue into 2027. The European Union relies on imports for 97 percent of its crude oil. European jet fuel inventories have already shrunk significantly, and the outlook for summer supplies is pessimistic.
European governments have already committed more than €11 billion in fiscal measures, but most are untargeted subsidies such as general excise duty or VAT cuts. Experts recommend stopping untargeted fuel subsidies and preparing a coordinated EU plan for oil-demand reduction.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic maritime chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through which about 20% of global oil and 40% of liquefied natural gas pass. Its effective closure began after the attack on Iran. Cumulative supply losses have already exceeded one billion barrels. Europe imports 97% of its crude oil, while imports of diesel and jet fuel have grown 25 fold and five fold respectively since 1990. The shortfall could increase over the summer as fuel demand rises with transport and travel.
War recedes, but its shadow lingers. The strait may open tomorrow, but tankers, oil fields and supply chains do not restart at the flick of a switch. A 12.8 million barrel daily deficit is not just a number. It is planes that cannot take off, factories running at half capacity, and energy bills outpacing wages. Europe, importing 97% of its oil, has become a hostage to geography and politics. Until 2027, this imbalance will serve as a reminder: energy security is not about "if" — it is about "when" and "for how long."
