Planet's braking path: World Bank cuts global growth forecast to 2.5% — worst since 2019
2.9% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026. The reasons: Middle East conflict, rising energy prices, higher inflation and costlier borrowing. If oil hits $115 per barrel, growth could fall to 2.1%; if the shock hits financial markets, to 1.3%. Gulf countries slide from 3.9% to near zero. South Asia still grows fastest (6.3%), but even that is a slowdown.
As reported by CCTV+, the World Bank on Thursday lowered its global economic growth forecast to 2.5% for 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025 — the lowest since late 2019. In its semi annual report "Global Economic Prospects", the bank cited rising energy prices, higher inflation and increased borrowing costs amid the Middle East conflict as reasons for the downgrade.
The report warns of significant downside risks. Global growth could slow to 2.1% if energy supply disruptions persist longer and average oil prices reach $115 per barrel this year, pushing inflation to 4.4%. Growth could even worsen to 1.3% if the energy shock spreads to financial markets. Persistent trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical pressures also pose substantial risks. However, broader investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and its applications could boost economic activity, according to the report.
Growth forecasts for two thirds of countries were lowered compared to the January report, with the largest downgrade affecting Gulf countries — from 3.9% in 2025 to nearly zero in 2026. South Asia is expected to post the strongest growth of any region, 6.3% in 2026, though still a slowdown from 7% in 2025. The report kept the US growth forecast at 2.2% in 2026, while noting it could slow to 2.1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028. The euro area economy is expected to grow 0.8% in 2026 (down from 1.4% in 2025), and Japan's GDP by 0.7% (down from 1.1%). Global growth is expected to improve to 2.8% in 2027, but that would still be 0.4 percentage points below the 2010s average.
The World Bank, founded in 1944, provides loans and analytical data to developing countries. Its semi annual "Global Economic Prospects" report is one of the most authoritative guides for governments and investors. The downgrade to 2.5% reflects compounded pressures: the Middle East war pushes oil prices up, central banks are forced to tighten policy, and geopolitical fragmentation breaks trade links.
The economy has never been just a graph. Behind the 2.5% figure are delayed paychecks in Cairo, cancelled holidays in Madrid, a closed factory in Jakarta. The World Bank paints a rather bleak picture: oil at $115, inflation biting again, Gulf growth evaporating. Yet in the same report there is a strange ray of hope — investment in artificial intelligence. Perhaps when old engines sputter, new technologies become the lever that pulls the world out of turbulence. Or at least prevents it from sliding into the abyss.
