OPEC lowers oil demand forecast for second consecutive month: from 1.38 million to 970,000 bpd — non OECD countries drag on global growth
The reasons — weakening demand in non OECD countries. In April, the organization expected growth of 1.38 million barrels per day, in May — 1.17 million. June's report recorded another downgrade.
As reported by CCTV+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year for the second consecutive month, citing expectations of weakening demand in non OECD countries. In its monthly Oil Market Report published on Thursday, the Vienna based group forecasts that global oil demand in 2026 will grow by 970,000 barrels per day compared to 2025 levels.
This is significantly lower than the 1.17 million bpd forecast in May and the 1.38 million bpd projected in April. The downgrade was mainly driven by lower demand expectations from non OECD countries, according to the report.
OPEC is a cartel of 13 oil exporting nations, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and others. Its monthly Oil Market Report is closely watched by traders, analysts and governments worldwide, as it directly influences prices. The 2026 downgrade comes amid the global energy transition, slowing economies in China and Europe, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Oil forecasts are like nomads — they rarely stay in one place. When OPEC revises its numbers downward again, the market flinches. But behind the dry barrels lies a simple truth: the world is being cautious. A slowdown in non OECD countries is not just statistics. It is a signal that the global economy is holding its breath. And while politicians and traders scan the horizon, one thing remains unchanged — each new OPEC report reminds us that our energy dependence has not disappeared; it has merely changed its shape.
