ORIENTIR | April 8. Judging by the chatter, many (even very many) were extremely nervous in anticipation of the energy apocalypse scheduled for Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET. But the situation around the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, it turns out, has been unfolding according to the classic scenario of a high-intensity crisis - a sharp escalation in rhetoric, a surge in market nervousness, and an equally rapid transition to temporary de-escalation. It seemed that everything had calmed down...

However, behind the apparent "respite" lies a much more complex picture – both for global energy and the global economy as a whole.

Markets, as expected, reacted to the risk immediately. Key oil benchmarks – Brent and WTI – showed sharp gains. While prices remained relatively stable on Tuesday ($80-$86 per barrel, briefly soaring to $116-$118 on some exchanges), by Wednesday, amid the escalation and harsh political signals, they were hovering around $88-$92 and even higher, again, sometimes in some places.

The pause announced by the conflicting parties for negotiations led to a partial correction—the market "exhaled," but the risk in prices remained. It's also telling that OPEC+ stubbornly continued to take a wait-and-see approach, preferring to observe the situation unfold, as it had done all these days, without making any drastic public moves.

The gas sector, which remains a hidden vulnerability, reacted no less sensitively to the current situation. European and Asian indices rose by 10-15%, directly related to supply risks from Qatar. A significant portion of liquefied natural gas transits through Hormuz, and any instability at this hub immediately impacts energy prices and, consequently, tariffs for consumers.

Logistics also responded indicatively, with the crisis effectively driving a profound transformation. Major carriers, including COSCO Shipping, were forced to restructure their supply chains, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.

Sea routes were partially disrupted, freight costs increased, and overland routes—primarily through Central Asia—became preferred. Thus, heavy-duty trucks, assembled in Xinjiang, eastern China, began to route to the Middle East via Central Asia.

ORIENT reported that the growth in cargo traffic in the Turkmen transport sector, where road freight shipments increased by 125% between January and March of this year, suggests the country's inclusion in emerging alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz.

In fact, we are witnessing a gradual transition from maritime to overland logistics on our continent and in the Central Asian region, which until recently was considered a long-term prospect.

Against this backdrop, the Caspian region is acquiring particular significance as a strategically important space, but currently, due to events in the Persian Gulf, it is a potentially vulnerable route. In this regard, I would like to remind you that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, represented by Maria Zakharova, issued a statement declaring the inadmissibility of transferring the Middle East confrontation to the southern part (from Iran) of the Caspian region, designating the Caspian as an area of exclusively peaceful cooperation.

Such statements reflect a broader trend, given that energy infrastructure is becoming increasingly sensitive to geopolitical risks. Even indirect pressure (not to mention direct impact) on systems such as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium could cause additional price volatility.

Against this backdrop, the importance of individual countries' resilience is particularly evident. The performance of the Turkmenhimiya State Concern, which exceeded its plan for the first three months of this year by 152.7%, as also reported by ORIENT, demonstrates high utilization of fertilizer production capacity, and therefore, the stability of food security in the gas-fertilizer-agriculture chain.

The energy sector is also indicative, with the Turkmennebit State Concern fulfilling its quarterly gasoline production plan by 119% and diesel fuel by 111.8%. Turkmenistan's gas industry also demonstrated steady growth, including a 126.7% increase in liquefied gas production.

All of this forms the basis for Turkmenistan's energy security and export solvency, which is particularly valuable in the face of global turbulence.

Meanwhile, for the end consumer, this complex geoeconomic picture manifests itself quite simply – in prices. Fuel prices are rising, widening the gap between regions; rising gas prices are leading to higher electricity prices; rising fertilizer prices are creating risks for future harvests and, consequently, for food security.

An additional indicator of tension was the rising price of gold, a traditional safe haven asset. Meanwhile, information about possible cryptocurrency payments for unimpeded passage through Hormuz remains mere market rumor and lacks documentary evidence.

The promised energy Armageddon did not materialize. Thank goodness. Peace (albeit fragile and perhaps short-lived) has finally prevailed.

The fuel and logistics crisis has been postponed. At least for the next two weeks. And let each side declare victory – in this case, that's not so important. The main thing is that a peaceful pause has been established for now. Unfortunately, only for now.

However, one really hopes that this short and anxious "for now" will one day become endless...

Bekdurdy AMANSARYEV