One of the most volatile weeks in modern energy history is coming to an end. While the world was horrified at the unexpected $116 per barrel price drop at the start of the current week on Monday, by the end of the week, on "the ominous Friday the 13th," passions had calmed. The obsession with price catastrophe was supplanted by a sober view of the situation, in which it is possible not only to survive but also to simply live, waiting for the critical temperature of a sick world to drop to realistically objective levels.

Our main price target, Brent crude, is ending the week in the $100-$102 range. This is an important psychological benchmark, as the market, having accepted the new reality, has stopped thrashing about. However, oil is not alone today. Its “little brother,” natural gas, also demonstrated no less obstinacy.

Just look at European hubs and Asian markets, where gas prices have been gyrating wildly over the past week. While $300–$400 per thousand cubic meters is considered normal in normal times, at the height of the current anxiety, prices instantly soared to $1,200 and beyond.

This "price knockout" (a three- to four-fold increase in a matter of days!) is easily explained: unlike oil, which can be stored in tankers, gas requires instant logistics. Any news about a possible shutdown of liquefied natural gas plants or a threat to tanker routes in the Persian Gulf turns gas contracts into "red-hot metal."

For the global market, this is a shock comparable to the sudden disappearance of air, whereas for our region, the presence of our own pipeline systems and stable production guarantees that the "comfortable temperature" in our homes will remain unchanged, despite the global freeze on the exchanges.

It's well known that gas prices are tightly tied to the oil basket, and today we see how this tandem is influencing global logistics. LNG has become hostage to the same straits as oil tankers.

And while Europe and Asia are considering alternative routes, including the Northern Sea Route, and world leaders, including Donald Trump, are making grandiose statements, trying to balance the benefits of producers with the interests of consumers, Turkmenistan is in a state of "gas immunity."

Stable gas production, which is currently significantly exceeding plan (up to 119% in some sectors), is Central Asia's "energy bulletproof vest." This composure is also being strengthened by government decisions. For example, during a government meeting on Friday, President Serdar Berdimuhamedov ordered the Turkmennebit State Concern to continue work to strengthen the industry's material and technical base.

In this regard, it's worth recalling another decree by the President of Turkmenistan, also signed today at a government meeting. According to this document, the people of neighboring Iran, primarily children, are instructed to send humanitarian aid—medicines, medical supplies, and other products—on behalf of the Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov Charitable Foundation for Assistance to Children in Need.

We've already written about this, but the good news is worth repeating, as it fully aligns with the motto of the ORIENT website: "Our focus is what brings people together." We see that prices haven't plummeted. They're balancing optimally. Because the "tangle" of interests between all parties is too tightly woven. On the one hand, despite previous intransigent statements, some restrictions on maritime shipping have been lifted to saturate the market. On the other hand, the United States, together with its partners in the International Energy Agency, announced the release of colossal strategic reserves. Thanks to this decision, approximately 400 million barrels of oil will enter the world market.

And this is one of the main events that cooled the market overheating. In history, this is the most powerful financial injection, capable of dousing the price fires that threatened to ignite the global economy.

While global giants are depleting their accumulated reserves over the years to keep the situation under control, our region is relying on its natural resources. This once again proves that in an era of shortages, domestic production is the highest form of economic freedom.

Flexible energy diplomacy is becoming the main tool for price regulation. It is precisely the ability to wait, that same "calm patience" of the master, that is saving markets from a final collapse today.

The main conclusion of this Friday and the entire week is that the storm in the ocean of oil has subsided. But humanity still has a long way to go before a global calm is achieved. And our "energy island" continues to feel safe, even though the waves from Washington to Tehran are reaching our shores.

On the topic

Why is the price of a barrel reaching the counter in our region?

Oil swings: why are global prices frozen in anticipation?

A price calm in the oil ocean or preparation for a new surge?

A rhythm of endurance, thanks to which the global oil market is learning to live without panic