Prediction | ORIENT. Today in Riyadh, the second leg of the 1/8 finals of the AFC Champions League 2 will take place between Saudi Arabia's Al-Nasr and Turkmenistan's Arkadag. What preparations will the champions of both countries bring to the pitch at Al-Awwal Park Stadium? And what can fans of both teams expect?

To answer these questions, let's return to the first match, which took place in the Turkmen capital a week ago, and then look to the near future.

Game Analysis in Ashgabat

Despite total control of the game, the Saudi Arabian club managed to capitalize on only one of the many opportunities created during the game. The merciless, yet objective, statistics were not in Arkadag's favor. Al-Nasr had possession for 70 percent of the game, completely dominating the center of the field (this factor will need to be taken into account by Arkadag in the away match).

During the game, the visiting team had 13 shots (approximately 4-5 of which were on goal frame), while Arkadag responded with only five attempts, and only one of them was on target. But alas...

In terms of attacking effectiveness, the Saudis created three "big chances," but failed to convert two of them. Already in the 11th minute, Ayman Yahya could have opened the scoring, but the ball hit the post, and at the end of the first half, in the 42nd minute, Arkadag goalkeeper Rasul Charyev, performing a football miracle (there is no other way to describe it), parried a dangerous shot from Al-Hamdan.

He literally fired the ball point-blank into the Turkmen team's goal. But the skill of the Turkmen goalkeeper prevented the Saudis from going into the break with a double lead. The 19th minute proved crucial for the Turkmen team – Al-Hamdan scored after a pass from Angelo. This was the goal that decided the outcome of the first leg.

In the second half, the Arkadag team tried to attack the Saudis' goal, but were unable to create any real scoring opportunities.

Arkadag's Strengths in the Home Game

Despite the defeat, the Turkmen team accomplished its main goal, managing to avoid a rout from the clear favorites. This was thanks to Arkadag's pragmatic and disciplined play.

A strong point for the Turkmen team is its well-organized defensive unit – the coaching staff established a tight defense that forced Al-Nasr to spend most of the game passing the ball around without advancing into the penalty area.

Furthermore, each of Arkadag's attackers demonstrated a tenacious defense that deserved special praise. The defenders and the holding midfielders skillfully maintained their positional compactness throughout the match.

The Saudis completely dominated the center of the field, launching systematic attacks from there (primarily through the well-oiled Brozović-Otavio partnership), allowing Al-Nasr to maintain 70 percent possession at the end of both halves.

In the Ashgabat match, goalkeeper Rasul Charyev was the hero of the match for the hosts, whose focus kept the score at a minimum.

Arkadag also deserves credit for their mental fortitude – the team didn't crumble after conceding a goal. On the contrary, in the second half, Arkadag increased its aggression in an attempt to seize the initiative.

Arkadag's Vulnerabilities

First and foremost, their lack of international experience against truly strong teams. Under pressure from Al-Nasr's star players, the Turkmen players often made mistakes with simple passes.

Arkadag's weakest link in the home match was their attack. Their attacking potential was unable to materialize when attempting to breach the strong opponent's defense. Furthermore, their transitions from defense to attack were too slow.

The Turkmen players also struggled to break through the center of the field. Under constant pressure from the Saudis, the forwards found themselves isolated from the midfield.

For a match of this level, set pieces were poorly practiced. Arkadag was unable to capitalize on four corner kicks due to the superior height and positioning of the visiting defenders.

But blaming the still-young Turkmen club would be unfair. Arkadag played skillfully within its capabilities, countering the individual skill of Al-Nasr's players with strict tactical discipline. The Turkmen players' excellent physical preparation, which allowed them to maintain a high tempo throughout the game, also deserves praise.

The loss was objective, a natural reflection of the balance of power, the players' tactical and technical skill, and their experience accumulated on the international stage. There was a sliver of hope for a "twelfth" player in the form of the 45,000-strong Turkmen crowd. But, alas...

So, a 0-1 score line against an Asian Football Confederation powerhouse is a worthy result for a debut match of this caliber. Al-Nasr played from a position of strength, albeit without the necessary passion. Arkadag demonstrated exemplary dedication and tactical literacy in defense, which made the final score honorable for Turkmen football.

Of course, the difference in the quality of the players, as well as the result of the first match, leaves Arkadag with a theoretical chance of advancing to the next stage, but in practical terms, it's very slim.

Al-Nasr is considered the clear favorite by all accounts heading into the home game. The Saudis accomplished the bare minimum in Ashgabat, despite playing in "economy mode" and without their top stars, the brightest of whom is undoubtedly Cristiano Ronaldo.

The main question heading into the match in Riyadh: Will Ronaldo take to the pitch at Al-Awwal Park Stadium for Al-Nasr?

What to Expect from the Game in Riyadh?

Ronaldo is expected to lead the attack in the return leg. If this prediction comes true, the legendary striker's presence on the pitch will significantly increase the pressure on the Turkmen club's defense.

The Turkmen team will likely once again adopt a defensive strategy with an emphasis on counterattacks. Given only one goal conceded in the first leg, Arkadag still has a theoretical chance of advancing, but the task will be much more difficult away from home against Al-Nasr's main squad.

It is also expected that Saudi Arabia coach Jorge Jesus will abandon his rotation scheme in favor of a strong lineup to ensure his team's progression to the quarterfinals.

In the first leg, Al-Nasr only used three foreign players (Bento, Angelo, and Haider Abdulkarim), but the home match allows them to utilize their full complement of foreign players.

A more open and productive performance from the Saudi club is expected in Riyadh. A narrow lead after the first leg will force Al-Nasr to play at full strength to avoid any surprises at their home stadium, Al-Awwal Park.

Arkadag's Tasks in the Return Leg

In defense, replace positional play with man-marking. In the first leg, Arkadag successfully contained Al-Nassr's attacks, but in the return leg, if Ronaldo comes on, he will need to be assigned a personal "marker," who, in turn, should be backed up by another player.

The defense's task is to prevent Cristiano from gaining space in the penalty area, and the central defenders must not only monitor the ball but also the movements of the Portuguese, who is a master at finding blind spots. The full-backs must also minimize the number of crosses, as Ronaldo and Mané are extremely dangerous in the air.

The pitch at Al-Awwal Park is considered one of the best in Saudi Arabia. The grass is very dense and closely mown, and it is generously watered before matches and at halftime. The ball glides on this surface 1.5 to 2 times faster than on pitches in Turkmenistan. This will require Arkadag's defenders to be extremely focused and quick.

And the ball's bounce on the thick, damp grass in Riyadh will be different than on their home grounds. To adapt to this type of pitch, it's advisable to conduct intensive training specifically aimed at acclimating the players to the specific conditions of the host stadium.

In the away game, the Turkmen footballers will need to demonstrate extreme mental resilience, as they will be under immense pressure from the stands. Arkadag will need to endure the first 20 minutes, as Al-Nasr always looks for an early goal at home. If our team doesn't concede early, the Saudis' nerves will grow, giving the Turkmen club a better chance.

In Ashgabat, Arkadag had only 30% possession and had one shot on target. This figure could drop even further away. Therefore, the Turkmen footballers will need to strive to improve the effectiveness of their counterattacks.

Long passes behind the Saudi defenders to Arkadag's quick forwards can provide a chance to successfully complete an attack.

Against technically skilled teams, set pieces often become the equalizer. They need to make the most of their players' height when taking corners and free kicks. This is the only area where Arkadag can physically challenge the world football stars.

Against a star-studded opponent, a draw or a narrow defeat in Riyadh will be considered an undoubted success for the young but improving Turkmen team.

Bekdurdy AMANSARYEV