China's National Climate Centre reports an increasing likelihood of a super El Niño
When the Pacific Ocean, covering a third of the planet, begins to warm two degrees above normal, and equatorial waters turn into a giant heat pump, the Earth's climate system enters a zone of turbulence. A super El Niño is not just a meteorological term – it is a real threat already reshaping weather patterns: droughts in some regions give way to floods in others, agriculture comes under pressure, and global supply chains are called into question. Chinese climatologists are sounding the alarm, as sea surface temperatures in key areas of the Pacific have exceeded the critical threshold of 2 degrees, and the phenomenon, which began in May, has quickly entered a strong phase. And if forecasts hold, the world could face a climate event comparable in scale to the most destructive El Niños in history.
Equatorial waters in the central and eastern Pacific reached El Niño threshold values in May, warmed further in June, and in early July entered a strong El Niño phase, with sea surface temperatures in key areas exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. The phenomenon is expected to last at least until next spring, a total of about a year – close to the historical average duration of 10-11 months. The likelihood of a super El Niño occurring at a later stage is increasing, the centre said. According to historical data and meteorological forecasts, the global climate impact of a strong El Niño typically peaks the following year due to a lag in the ocean‑to‑atmosphere response. The impact usually becomes fully apparent only six months to a year after the phenomenon reaches its peak.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with warming of the surface layer of water in the central and eastern Pacific. It occurs on average every 2-7 years and has a significant impact on global atmospheric circulation. Strong events, such as those in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016, led to massive droughts, wildfires, floods and crop failures worldwide. The current El Niño has already broken records: satellite observations show that ocean warming is occurring faster than during previous super‑events. China's Climate Centre warns that the effects could affect the country's agriculture, especially in the northern and central provinces, where droughts are possible, as well as the southern regions, where heavy rainfall is expected. Globally, this could exacerbate food and energy price increases, hitting the most vulnerable economies.
As CCTV+ reports, the current situation requires close attention not only from meteorologists but also from governments, businesses and individuals, as climate anomalies increasingly become not an exception but a new normal, to which adaptation is needed today.
