The EBRD forecasts GDP growth in 2020 only in Egypt, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts a drop in GDP in 2020 in all countries where the Bank’s programs are implemented, except Egypt, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This is reported by TASS. “The Bank forecasts that the drop in GDP of the countries, where its programs are implemented, will amount to 3.5% in 2020 due to the consequences of a new type of coronavirus pandemic,” writes the agency. The list of countries, where the Bank rapidly works today, includes countries in Central Europe, Central Asia, the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean, the West coast of Jordan and Gaza. The only member of the Bank, that has left the list of countries of operations and no longer receives investment from the EBRD, is the Czech Republic. GDP is projected to decline in 2020 in each of these countries, with the exception of Egypt, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where economic growth is expected to be 0.5%, 1% and 1.5%, respectively, at the end of the year. In 2021, the economy will return to growth at 4.8%. “The crisis was an extremely serious blow, and its overcoming will be no less difficult. This moment is not to resort to a policy of economic isolationism and protectionism, but to ensure a better future for everyone, while maintaining an international commitment to free trade, fighting climate change and economic cooperation,” TASS quoted Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist of the EBRD. The Bank’s forecast assumes that the pandemic-induced crisis will have a moderate impact on the long-term trajectory of economic output. Already in the third quarter of 2020, the EBRD expects economic growth to resume in the countries. The report notes that “there are potentially essential long-term economic, political and social consequences” of the pandemic.
