Stockholm Resilience Centre: Food needs of the future 10-billion population can be met without overspending the earth's resources
According to a new study by the Stockholm Resilience Center, the Earth will be able to feed its 10 billion people by 2050. However, this will require a number of global measures, including a shift towards healthy and more plant-based diets, reducing food waste, and optimizing agriculture.
By taking these steps, countries will reduce the risk of crossing environmental boundaries related to climate change, the use of agricultural land, freshwater resources and pollution of ecosystems due to overuse of fertilizers.
In the paper, "Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits," published by Nature, scientists for the first time quantified the impact of food production and consumption on planetary boundaries, that is, key environmental boundaries, the violation of which can cause disruptions in life support.
No single solution is enough to avoid crossing planetary boundaries. But when the solutions are implemented together, our research indicates that it may be possible to feed the growing population sustainably, says Dr. Marco Springmann of the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food and the Nuffield Department of Population Health at the University of Oxford, who led the study.
According to him, without concerted action, the environmental impacts of the food system could increase by 50-90% by 2050 due to population growth and rise in diets high in fat, sugar and meat. In this case, there will be a significant surpass in the use of all resources associated with food production.
Thus, scientists have combined specific environmental accounts with the model of the global food system and suggested several ways to preserve it in environmentally safe limits:
First, it is possible to minimize the negative effects of climate change by stimulating a plant-based diet. Green nutrition on a global scale will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than half, as well as alleviate pressure on arable land and freshwater resources.
Secondly, there is a need to improve agricultural practices and technologies. These include objectives such as increasing crop yields, balanced application and recycling of fertilizers, and improving water management.
And finally, thirdly, the loss of food and food waste must be halved. Such a goal can be achieved by taking measures throughout the food chain - from storage, transportation, packaging of food products to changes in legislation and business practices.
Many of the solutions we analysed are being implemented in some parts of the world, but it will need strong global co-ordination and rapid upscale to make their effects felt, explains Springmann.
Naturally, the modernization of agro-technologies is associated with rise in investment in research and infrastructure, the development of rational schemes to stimulate farmers, including mechanisms to support the implementation of best practices.
As for diet, according to Springmann, comprehensive policies and business approaches are essential to make dietary changes toward healthy and more plant-based diets possible and attractive for a large number of people. Important aspects include school and workplace programmes, economic incentives and labelling, and aligning national dietary guidelines with the current scientific evidence on healthy eating and the environmental impacts of our diet.
