JP Morgan warns of global food crisis risk from El Niño and shipping disruptions
A senior JP Morgan economist has warned that the dual impact of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a potentially historic super-El Niño could severely hit global food production, raising the risk of a worldwide food crisis.
Food security has long ceased to be merely an agricultural issue – today it is one of the key indicators of global stability. When climate anomalies overlap with logistical choke points, and food prices rise in tandem with geopolitical tensions, billions of lives are put at risk. The latest alarm comes from one of the world’s leading financial institutions.
In a report entitled “Food Security Is National Security: The Gathering Storm”, Nora Szentiványi, Senior Global Economist at JP Morgan in London, stated that this combination of factors could lead to lower crop yields, restrict agricultural activity and keep food inflation elevated through the first half of 2027. She added that the current global energy supply shock could amplify the inflationary impact of the super-El Niño.
Global food inflation is expected to rise from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% in the first half of 2027, adding 0.6 percentage points to overall inflation, she noted in the report published by JP Morgan. According to the report, the effects are likely to be highly uneven, with developing economies in parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America hit hardest, as their agricultural sectors are more sensitive to weather changes and food accounts for a larger share of household spending.
The report calls for greater assistance to vulnerable populations already facing food shortages. It cites data showing that last year about 645 million people worldwide were hungry, while about 2.1 billion people experienced moderate or severe food insecurity – roughly 25.8% of the global population.
Other major institutions have also raised the alarm. Research teams at Goldman Sachs and HSBC have pointed to rising global food inflation risks, and a recent report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization showed that the global food price index in July posted its fastest month on month increase since January 2023.
As CCTV+ reports, the JP Morgan warning comes against a backdrop of already rising prices and the vulnerability of the poorest countries. In the coming months, the international community will need not only to monitor weather and straits but also to scale up food aid – otherwise the risks of 2027 could trigger social upheavals comparable to the 2008 crisis.
