Thailand faces a demographic crisis with record-low births and population decline for the fifth straight year
Demographic changes rarely happen overnight — they accumulate over years, reflecting thousands of individual choices. When birth rates fall below replacement levels and deaths consistently outnumber births, society enters a new reality: fewer children, fewer workers, fewer taxpayers and more elderly citizens. Thailand, once proud of its economic rise, now faces a challenge that could reshape its future for decades. Closing schools, emptying classrooms and projections that the population could halve to 33 million are not just statistics — they are a warning for all of Southeast Asia.
In 2025, Thailand recorded just 416,574 births, the lowest in 75 years, while deaths reached 559,684, exceeding births by over 140,000 — marking the fifth consecutive year of negative population growth. From school closures to a shrinking workforce, Thailand is entering a demographic shift that could alter society for decades. In Bangkok, a school that was once the heart of its community, with 2,780 pupils in its heyday, closed its doors for good after 60 years of operation, with only 569 students left.
"There has been a decline in the number of children. With fewer children, our income dropped," said Pholanan Suphanphasud, manager of the Tanormpittayaya School. The school closed simply because there were not enough students to keep it running. Today it stands empty — another casualty of Thailand's plummeting birth rate.
With one of the world's lowest fertility rates, grim projections suggest Thailand's population could halve from 66 million to 33 million over the next 60 years. The consequences will be severe: labour shortages, growing pressure on social welfare systems and long-term economic damage.
Behind these figures lie millions of personal decisions. Supajuta Sontrareeat, 39, has built the life she dreamed of — a stable career, financial independence and freedom — but children are not part of her plans. "As a child, I dreamed of having a family and children. As I grew up, I changed my views. I feel I still have work and things I want to do.
I have many other interests, and I feel I can find happiness in other ways that don't depend on having children," she said. But for many others, it is a choice driven by cost, pressure and uncertainty — a future where starting a family feels too expensive. Different reasons lead to the same result: the birth rate has fallen well below the level needed to sustain the population. "We usually call the reproduction rate 2, meaning that on average a woman needs to have about two children to maintain the population.
But in Thailand, that figure has recently fallen below one. And compared with the rest of the world, we are definitely among the countries with the lowest birth rates," said Dr Manasigan Kanchanachitra, associate professor at the Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University.
Thailand's average age is rising rapidly, and the proportion of working-age citizens is shrinking. The economy, which depends on tourism and exports, risks facing chronic labour shortages. The government has introduced tax incentives for families with children and birth-support programmes, but demographic trends are hard to reverse.
As CCTV+ reports. Thailand's experience shows that the demographic transition is not only a medical or social issue but also a challenge to the entire model of economic development, which will need to adapt to an ageing society.
