IEA: global natural gas demand to drop 0.5% in 2026 amid geopolitical tensions and price hikes
Natural gas has always reflected global politics: when conflict flares in the Middle East, the fuel becomes more expensive, and entire economies tighten their belts. The Iranian crisis and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have hit liquefied natural gas supplies, and now even the largest consumers are being forced to cut back. This decline is not just a number in a report — it is a stark reminder that energy security remains a vulnerable point in globalisation.
According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) released on Tuesday, global natural gas demand is expected to fall by 0.5 percent, or 20 billion cubic metres, in 2026, as supply constraints and rising prices amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weigh on consumption. The report states that the US Iran conflict triggered a sharp drop in LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled about 20 percent of global LNG trade.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's key energy chokepoints. Around 20% of global LNG passes through it daily, and any disruption is immediately reflected in European and Asian prices. The US Iran conflict, which escalated in early 2026, has effectively blocked part of the tanker traffic, forcing traders to seek alternative routes and price in rising risks.
The IEA also notes that high gas prices are already affecting industrial production in Europe, where many factories are switching to cheaper coal or cutting output. Asian importers, including China and Japan, are also adjusting their procurement plans downwards, aiming to reduce dependence on expensive spot supplies.
As CCTV+ reports. In the coming months, the gas market will hinge on the conflict's trajectory and the possibility of resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but experts warn that even in the best case, a full recovery would take at least six months.
