OPEC sees oil demand rising to 124 million bpd by 2050 — as IEA pessimism and Gulf supply return loom large
India will account for +8.1 million bpd, with most growth in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. OPEC sees no peak in demand, while the IEA forecasts a 1.1 million bpd drop this year. Kuwait and other OPEC members are already restoring production to pre crisis levels.
As reported by CCTV+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday reaffirmed its upbeat outlook for global oil demand in the medium and long term, stating that there are currently no signs that oil demand has peaked.
In its 2026 world oil demand forecast, OPEC projects global demand will rise from 105.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to 113.3 million bpd by 2030 and further to 124.1 million bpd by 2050. Most of the growth over the coming decades will come from Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Among these, India is expected to contribute the most, adding 8.1 million bpd over the entire forecast period.
OPEC's optimistic outlook contrasts sharply with forecasts from other organisations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA had earlier warned that the impact of Middle East conflicts on global oil demand would be much more severe than previously assumed, forecasting a 1.1 million bpd decline in daily consumption this year. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, OPEC members, including Kuwait, have begun implementing plans to quickly bring production back to previous levels. Market watchers will be closely monitoring whether global markets can absorb the returning supply.
OPEC is a cartel of 13 oil exporting countries. Its forecasts tend to be optimistic as the organisation has a vested interest in long term investment in the oil industry. The IEA, representing consumer countries, often gives more pessimistic assessments. A barrel is a unit of oil volume equal to 159 litres.
India is becoming the main driver of demand growth, overtaking China, whose economy is slowing. The return of Gulf production after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz adds further pressure to the market.
When OPEC talks about 124 million barrels by 2050, it envisions a world that cannot give up oil. When the IEA cuts its forecast by 1.1 million barrels, it sees a world already turning away from fossil fuels. Who is right? Probably both. Because the future is not linear: oil will remain, but its role will change. India will pump, Europe will cut, Asia will grow. And as tankers once again sail through the Strait of Hormuz, markets face the key question: who is ready to pay for black gold in a world where green is getting cheaper?
