The Afghan Knot, or Will There Be a Central Asian Economic Miracle Without a Stable Kabul
The modern world is experiencing a period of profound turbulence and rapid geopolitical change, in which the stability and orderly development of Central Asia are directly dependent on whether the people of Afghanistan can finally establish a peaceful, creative life in their country.
Another historic step in this direction was taken today, June 16, in Kabul, where a forum of think tanks from Afghanistan and Central Asian countries, dedicated to the strategic role of research institutes in developing regional cooperation was held.
Turkmenistan was represented at this meeting by Atageldy Khaldzhanov, Head of the Department of International Economic Cooperation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Shiri Shiriev, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the Institute of International Relations at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
This event, which brought together heads of foreign policy agencies, leading strategic institutions, and experts, clearly demonstrated the region's readiness to increasingly move from declarative statements to the dissemination of historically proven experience.
Discussions focused on strengthening the intellectual bridge between expert communities and practical solutions to regional stability issues through economic connectivity, transit corridors, and energy partnerships. Economic cooperation was the central focus of the forum's discussions, as it brings tangible benefits to people when the political dialogue between leaders sets the overall direction.
Experts agreed that the current potential for trade between Central Asia and Afghanistan remains far from fully realized, and this is due not to a lack of political will, but to purely practical barriers such as inconsistent customs procedures, logistical impasses, and financial uncertainty.
Instead of waiting for ideal conditions, the diplomatic community proposed a pragmatic strategy of small but sustainable steps, whereby gradual improvements in the situation occur through the consistent resolution of specific issues, whether it be one specific border crossing, one simplified procedure, or one type of goods at a time.
This approach, according to Atageldy Khaldzhanov, minimizes risks and systematically expands the scale of cooperation, relying on realism in the investment sphere, where large-scale capital requires predictability and legal and physical security.
Since these conditions have not yet been fully established in the macro-region, it is important for government agencies to encourage the private sector to invest in flexible, less risky sectors, such as light industry, agriculture, and border logistics, while think tanks should identify small pilot projects that can serve as illustrative models for future large-scale businesses.
While the global community theorizes about Afghanistan's future, practical economic integration at its borders is already underway on a daily basis, with the digitalization of customs systems being the most illustrative example.
Afghanistan has successfully implemented an automated customs clearance system, dramatically reducing cargo inspection time, while some neighboring countries in the region, including Turkmenistan, have adopted the electronic processing of all import and export declarations through a single-window system that unites more than twenty government agencies.
Working on compatible modern digital platforms paves the way for the creation of simplified customs corridors, joint border crossings, and real-time cross-border data exchange. This digital synergy rests on a strong physical foundation, as disruptions to traditional global routes have made diversifying transport routes a matter of economic survival.
Today, Afghanistan has ceased to be a dead end for Central Asian countries, according to Shiri Shiriev, and has become a midpoint, a land bridge between Central and South Asia. This bridge is functioning effectively right now, as evidenced by the daily freight traffic figures, with dozens of railcars and hundreds of trucks passing through key checkpoints.
They transport petroleum products, liquefied gas, grain, and consumer goods based on a consistent good-neighbor policy that keeps borders open regardless of geopolitical fluctuations. Afghanistan's infrastructure integration into regional supply chains has acquired a comprehensive, five-dimensional character, uniting projects in the gas industry, rail and road transport, electric power, and communications into a single technological corridor.
A key milestone in this process will be the completion of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India gas pipeline. According to current expert forecasts, this pipeline will reach the Afghan city of Herat, where active construction is currently underway, by the end of this year or early next year.
For Afghanistan, the arrival of industrial gas means not just fuel, but the launch of domestic enterprises, the creation of thousands of jobs, and a powerful factor in social stabilization. Further expansion of the pipeline into the Pakistani and Indian markets will institutionally connect the continent's two largest macro-regions.
At the same time, rail links are developing rapidly, with a steel line already connecting key logistics hubs in Central Asia and Caspian Sea ports with Afghan border stations. Current efforts are aimed at extending the pipeline deeper into Afghan territory, including Herat.
In close conjunction with rail construction, large-scale plans are being developed to build a modern highway along this same route, creating a flexible multimodal corridor with its own roadside infrastructure, service centers, and distribution centers.
This framework is seamlessly complemented by the expansion of power lines for energy transit to South Asia and the installation of fiber-optic communication trunk lines, which will not only provide Afghan cities with high-speed internet but also create an end-to-end telecommunications bridge to the Indian Ocean, transforming Kabul into an important digital hub.
Integration efforts on the western flank are harmoniously complemented by other megaprojects in the region, among which the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor, passing through Termez, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kabul, and Kharlachi, occupies a key place.
For Central Asian countries, this steel highway provides the shortest route to Indian Ocean ports and, according to experts, could reduce logistics costs by 30-40 percent, providing South Asian countries with direct access to markets throughout the region.
In the energy sector, a large-scale cross-border project to supply surplus summer hydroelectric power from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan is working in tandem.
The primary value of these grand Eurasian projects is that they transform geopolitics into a constructive benefit and serve as highly effective peacekeeping tools, fostering an indivisible common interest among all regional players in maintaining long-term peace and stability, as stable budget revenues and new jobs make peace economically beneficial for all Afghan forces.
Of course, economic recovery is impossible without a robust security architecture, where the key political foundation is Turkmenistan's strategy of permanent neutrality, recognized at the United Nations level and exerting a significant influence on the foreign policies of countries in the region.
This status allows the country to serve as an impartial and reliable platform for preventive diplomacy, conflict-free border management, and assistance to Afghanistan in the joint fight against drug trafficking through the creation of strictly controlled cross-border corridors.
At the same time, everyone agreed that Afghanistan's internal stability must be based on employment mechanisms. In this regard, the Central Asian states, having successfully overcome the difficult stage of economic transformation and labor market development in the early years of their independence, possess ready-made packages of solutions capable of helping Kabul launch self-employment mechanisms and reduce poverty.
However, any domestic reforms are currently artificially hindered by external factors, requiring the region's diplomats and think tanks to consolidate on global platforms. It is important for Central Asian states to advocate unitedly for the gradual lifting of sanctions against the Taliban and for the unfreezing of the sovereign financial assets of the Central Bank of Afghanistan held in foreign institutions. Without the return of these funds to legal circulation, the full financing of infrastructure and social programs in Central Asia's southern neighbor is impossible.
To reduce the potential for internal conflict, Afghan institutions have also been encouraged to adopt the unique experience of countries in the region in organizing inclusive interstate and interregional cooperation. A striking example of this was the work of the Fergana Peace Forum, which demonstrated that even the most acute historical contradictions between adjacent territories can be successfully overcome if the parties are committed to mutual respect and compromise.
We are convinced that environmental security, which has become increasingly acute due to large-scale hydraulic engineering construction in northern Afghanistan and the construction of the gigantic Koshtepa Canal, must occupy a special, strategically sensitive place on the region's agenda.
When this irrigation system reaches full capacity, water withdrawal volumes will constitute a significant share of the Amu Darya's perennial flow. Given climate change and general low water levels, this will require downstream countries to thoroughly adapt their entire agricultural systems through the comprehensive modernization of irrigation networks, a review of cropping patterns, and the widespread implementation of water-saving technologies.
This primarily concerns the rapidly developing agricultural zones of the Khorezm region, the Republic of Karakalpakstan, and the border regions of Turkmenistan.
In this regard, it is important for the authors of the Koshtepa project to thoroughly study the historical experience of their neighbors in the region and the hidden long-term risks that engineers faced when constructing the Karakum Canal in the 1960s, when the lack of a concrete lining for the channel in sandy soils led to colossal water losses due to filtration.
Moreover, water lost to sandy soil inevitably resurfaces in completely different locations, causing soil flooding, critical rises in groundwater levels, and large-scale degradation and salinization of fertile lands. And their reclamation costs countries many times more than any immediate agricultural profit from hasty expansion of arable land without prior mathematical calculations.
Droughts and water shortages are common regional challenges that require a truly collaborative response. It is encouraging that Afghan specialists are now demonstrating a constructive approach, regularly participating in specialized environmental conferences and regional water forums, where a continuous, respectful and collaborative search for equitable resource management formulas is underway.
To optimize this process, the region can leverage cutting-edge artificial intelligence practices for accurate climate change modeling and forecasting transboundary river flows.
The Kabul Forum marked a fundamental transformation in the role of the region's think tanks, which are systematically moving away from passive academic observation and the description of existing barriers. Their new mission is to serve as the primary intellectual driver and early strategic forecasting system, capable of proposing ready-made scenarios for advanced development.
In a context where the well-being of its neighbors directly depends on the predictability of Kabul's actions, it is precisely this deep integration that can transform common climate, economic, energy, and transport challenges into a solid, indestructible foundation for the indivisible prosperity of all the peoples of Central Asia and Afghanistan.
Bekdurdy AMANSARYEV,
Expert, Center for Strategic Studies, Institute of International Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan
