ORIENTIR | April 6. The transition from the weekend to the start of the week on global markets occurred without any sudden upheavals, but in an atmosphere of growing caution. By early Tuesday morning, the price of Brent crude oil had stabilized near $88-$90 per barrel, down from $85-$86 on Friday. This move can't be considered a leap, but it is significant enough to suggest the formation of a sustainable risk premium.

This is not so much about an actual shortage as it is about the expectation of possible supply disruptions, primarily in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global exports passes. Meanwhile, recently, at the peak of tensions, prices reached levels of around $115-$118 per barrel, highlighting the ongoing market volatility.

The weekend itself didn't bring any new developments, but it did heighten tensions. Wang Yi's statements about the need for a swift de-escalation and his conversation with Sergey Lavrov further confirmed that major players perceive the current situation as a potential threat to global stability. This is sufficient for markets – the anticipation of risk often influences prices as much as the risk itself.

The gas market is reacting more cautiously, but there's also upward momentum. By the start of the week, spot prices in Europe are holding in the €28-€32 per megawatt-hour range, up slightly from the end of last week.

This isn't a sharp increase, but rather a reflection of the same logic—caution and factoring potential risks into current prices. An additional factor is the energy sector strain in a number of countries, where the load on power grids is increasing.

The impact of these processes is most evident where the global economy intersects with everyday life. In Europe, the average gasoline price is already fluctuating between 1.7 and 2 euros per liter, exceeding this mark in some countries.

In Asia, the increase is less pronounced, but is also noticeable through increased costs. A telling example is China, where airlines almost overnight increased fuel surcharges. Thus, from the previous 10-20 yuan (approximately $1.50-$3.00) to 60-120 yuan (approximately $8-$17.00), depending on the flight distance. This directly reflects the rising cost of jet fuel, which accounts for up to 30-40 percent of carriers' expenses.

Against this backdrop, Central Asia appears more stable. In the region's largest cities, such as Tashkent and Almaty, gasoline prices remain between $0.60 and $0.90 per liter, although they are showing a gradual upward trend.

In Ashgabat, the situation remains the most stable – fuel prices remain low thanks to government regulation and the availability of domestic energy resources. However, even here, the impact of external factors is felt indirectly through the rising cost of imported goods and services.

Investors, reacting to the general uncertainty, continue to show interest in safe haven assets. By Tuesday morning, the price of gold was holding near $2,350–$2,380 per troy ounce, having strengthened slightly compared to previous days. This is a classic reaction, as capital seeks more predictable forms of value preservation amid uncertainty.

At the same time, the OPEC+ alliance is maintaining its traditional wait-and-see approach. The lack of any strong statements only reinforces the feeling that market participants prefer to react as the situation unfolds rather than anticipate events.

Financial markets in the US and Europe are showing cautious dynamics. Individual companies are experiencing pressure on their capitalization, but a systemic crisis is not yet in sight. In Europe, there are signs of a slowdown in business activity, which is gradually reflected in the labor market, although unemployment remains moderate.

Digital assets, including Bitcoin, continue to fluctuate widely, around $60,000–$65,000. This highlights their dual nature. On the one hand, cryptocurrencies are perceived as an alternative to traditional financial instruments, while on the other, they remain sensitive to overall investor risk appetite.

Political factors are also adding to the uncertainty. Donald Trump's statements, including harsh rhetoric and timelines for possible actions, are increasing market nervousness. Even without specific decisions, such signals shape expectations and therefore directly influence price movements.

As a result, a situation is emerging in which global processes are gradually but steadily beginning to impact everyday life. For Central Asian countries, this manifests itself not in sharp price hikes, but in gradual price increases.

Turkmenistan remains in a more secure position in this system thanks to its internal resources and state containment mechanisms, but external pressure cannot be completely avoided. Imports become more expensive, businesses adapt, and the economy experiences the same "creeping inflation" effect, which doesn't cause an immediate shock but becomes noticeable over time.

This isn't a crisis that comes suddenly and immediately changes the rules of the game. It's a gradual shift in economic reality, initially barely noticeable, but over time becoming part of everyday life – in prices, expenses, and habitual decisions.

Bekdurdy AMANSARYEV