In the new edition of his column "ORIENTIR," renowned journalist and expert Bekdurdy Amansaryev analyzes why, amid the "energy apocalypse" and the futile search for alternative routes around the Strait of Hormuz, Turkmenistan's strategy of neutrality is becoming the benchmark for reliability. Our article explores how pragmatism trumps political ambitions and why Central Asia's land bridges are more important than any global currency today.

One of the most dramatic weeks in the history of global energy is coming to an end. The events of recent hours—from the strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan and Iran's South Pars to the attacks on Turkish Stream and Blue Stream—have transformed the global market into a zone of total uncertainty.

Turkmenistan's position as a neutral state clearly requires all conflicting parties to resolve issues exclusively peacefully through political and diplomatic means.

However, the world is facing the loss of almost a fifth of global LNG exports. Massive strikes on infrastructure in Qatar and Iran have forced producers to begin emergency shutdowns of wells and plants.

This is a complex technological process that cannot be reversed in a week or even months. Resuming operations at such giant facilities could take a long time, guaranteeing prohibitively high gas prices. This will negatively impact the standard of living of almost the entire population of our planet. Against this backdrop, Turkmenistan's pipeline system is becoming the region's only reliable bridge to normal life.

Global consumers have adopted emergency stabilization tactics. International Energy Agency President Fatih Birol confirmed the readiness of IEA member states to inject additional volumes from strategic funds into the market as needed.

This is despite the fact that approximately 30% of the reserves have already been deployed to curb energy prices, as reported by ORIENT. In doing so, the International Energy Agency is signaling to the market that it is ready for decisive action, even though the remaining 70% of strategic petroleum reserves, at this scale, are designed for a period of less than two weeks.

Washington also supports this line – the Donald Trump administration took the pragmatic step of temporarily allowing the offshore unloading of Russian oil to prevent a global shortage. This is further proof that in a crisis, real resources are more important than political ambitions.

Trump has openly stated that the administration is lifting some sanctions to "quench the flames of prices." After Brent crude prices stormed past $120, the threat of a global shortage has become real.

Russia, like Turkmenistan, remains the foundation of global energy security. Even the United States has acknowledged that without these volumes, the global economy is unviable. Without this maneuver, the price of a liter of gasoline at gas stations in many countries could have soared far beyond their means.

For Turkmenistan, the lifting of restrictions on its neighbors is a good sign. This partially eases overall tensions in the world and the region, confirming the persistent thesis that overland routes and stable supplies currently represent the highest global value.

The issue of alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz was discussed at an emergency meeting in Riyadh. Such routes do exist, but they resemble an attempt to run the ocean through a domestic faucet.

Saudi Arabia's main hope is the East-West Pipeline (Petroline). It is, indeed, a massive pipeline, stretching across the desert to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Its designed capacity reaches 5 million barrels per day. While this is certainly impressive, 20 million barrels per day passed through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. In other words, the pipeline can only save a quarter of the Saudi kingdom's exports.

The United Arab Emirates can pump oil through the Abu Dhabi Pipeline (ADCOP), bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to the multi-purpose port of Fujairah. Fujairah is located on the east coast of the UAE, in the Gulf of Oman, but outside the Strait of Hormuz. But here too, the same problem arises: the pipeline's capacity is only 1.5 million barrels. While this is a lifeline for the Emirates' domestic needs, it's a mere fraction of the global market. One option is to use land-based tanker convoys. This involves transporting oil in large trucks across the desert to ports in Oman and the Red Sea. However, this is a very expensive project to implement – ​​the cost of such logistics is five to seven times higher than tanker transport. Besides the exorbitant price, the speed of cargo transfer will be extremely slow and will create colossal traffic jams at the borders.

As a result, while the Arab states of the Gulf region are searching for alternatives to the blocked Hormuz, attempting to transport oil overland to the Red Sea through the scorching desert, the cost of such logistics is turning energy into a luxury item due to its prohibitive price. And behind this, as has already been stated, lies the well-being of all humanity.

Against this backdrop, Turkmenistan's land energy bridges appear to be a model of reliability. While others can only dream of route security, the region operates them with well-oiled precision.

These successes, like many others, were achieved by the country thanks to its policy of neutrality. Speaking at the International Forum dedicated to the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistan's neutrality, National Leader of the Turkmen People and Chairman of the Khalk Maslakhaty, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, stated:

"In these challenging times the world is experiencing, the unity of all responsible, healthy, and peace-loving forces, as well as their determination to counter threats to the global security architecture, is needed more than ever. Turkmenistan recognizes the need to more actively and effectively utilize the entire arsenal of politics and diplomacy, public opinion, and its accumulated humanistic heritage."

Thus, in an era of "geopolitical fragmentation," when trust is eroding and confrontation is escalating, Turkmenistan's model offers a practical example of how a state can actively work to overcome differences and create conditions for dialogue, rather than simply avoid conflict. This proactive confidence-building is a key “lesson” that can be applied to broader international efforts to de-escalate tensions…