International sanctions have once again changed Iran's position on the global stage. What challenges and opportunities does this present for Central Asia?

The sanctions regime against Tehran, which was reinstated after a ten-year hiatus, will once again impact cooperation between Iran and the Central Asian states. Earlier, on August 28, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom sent a letter to the UN Security Council notifying them of the activation of the "rapid response mechanism" provided for in the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran and the countries initiating the sanctions were unable to reach an agreement, and a resolution proposed by Russia and China for a six-month deferment failed to gain support in the UN Security Council. International sanctions against Iran came into force again on September 28, 2025.

The sanctions regime for Iran is not a new or unpredictable phenomenon, as the country has been living and developing under these conditions for the past half-century. Most likely, the Iranians have their own response and Plan B to the potential and real challenges of the sanctions regime.

This new circumstance will undoubtedly impact the nature of cooperation between Iran and Central Asia. While before 2015, Iran suffered more from the sanctions regime in its cooperation with Central Asian countries, under the current circumstances, the countries of our region will likely face some challenges. Since cooperation has been renewed over the past decade, new areas have emerged, and promising projects have been initiated.

Although trade between Iran and the Central Asian countries is incomparable to other major players, it has good potential for growth due to geographic factors.

In 2024, Iran's trade with Turkmenistan amounted to $600 million (in May 2025, the parties agreed to increase it to $3 billion), with Uzbekistan it was approximately $500 million (in May 2025, the parties agreed to increase it to $2 billion), with Tajikistan it was $377.7 million, with Kazakhstan it was $340 million, and with Kyrgyzstan it was $58.5 million. Throughout this year, representatives of all countries in the region discussed increasing bilateral trade at meetings with their Iranian counterparts.

Current Challenges to Iran's Foreign Policy

Iran has faced constant foreign policy challenges over the past few decades, but events from late 2024 to the present are unprecedented. During this period, Iran has faced serious foreign policy challenges and real threats to its national security. These include:

First, the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. The Syrian opposition launched an offensive on November 27, 2024, and 10 days later (December 8), Bashar al-Assad's regime collapsed, and he sought refuge in Russia. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by al-Sharaa (the current president), came to power in Syria. Iran had been fighting it for many years through its proxy forces. The failure in Syria led to the weakening of Iranian influence in the Middle East, an influence that had been built with significant financial and human resources.

Second, the unsuccessful US-Iranian proximity talks. Talks between Iran and the US began in April of this year, and several rounds were held by June. The positions and expectations of the two sides were diametrically opposed, but they were consistent with the saying "a bad peace is better than any war." It seemed that both sides were committed to protracted negotiations aimed at reaching a compromise. Israel's attack on Iran, amid preparations for another round of US-Iranian talks, seemed like an attempt to deceive Tehran, catch it off guard, and achieve its goals.

Third, the twelve-day Iran-Israel War. Israel's aggression against Iran began on June 13 and ended on June 25, brokered by the United States and Qatar. Iran responded to the Israeli attack, and both sides suffered casualties and destroyed infrastructure. This brief war debunked several myths, particularly the limited capabilities of Iran and Israel to defend themselves, particularly the vulnerability of the Iron Dome.

Fourth, the initialing of the peace agreement and the renaming of the Zangezur Corridor to the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). If this route opens, the United States will gain exclusive control of the corridor near Iran's borders for 99 years. This circumstance raises serious concerns in Iran about a change in the status quo in the South Caucasus.

Fifth, the reimposition of sanctions against Iran, the potential consequences of which remain uncertain.

Each of the above points has already created and will likely create new challenges and threats for Iran. Today, Tehran faces other domestic political (for example, the consequences of the Iran-Israel war and its impact on the economy and the well-being of its citizens) and foreign policy (for example, the information war against Iran and tense relations with the Taliban, which is especially pressing given the US president's announcement of control over the Bagram Air Base) problems. Some Iranian experts see a way out of the current situation in pursuing an active foreign policy. Therefore, it can be assumed that Iran's foreign policy approach may undergo significant changes in the near future, and the preconditions for this process are already evident.

Will Iran's Approach to Central Asia Change?

More likely than not. Iran is a neighbor of the Central Asian region, sharing a land and sea border with Turkmenistan (1,148 km long) and a shared Caspian Sea basin with Kazakhstan. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan border Afghanistan, which also shares a border with Iran. Tehran is a close partner of Beijing, Moscow, and New Delhi, and a member of the SCO. Therefore, given the existing challenges, there is a high probability that Tehran will take steps to intensify its policy in the Central Asian region.

Для такого изменения есть несколько предпосылок:

Во-первых, при администрации бывшего президента Ирана Раиси была объявлена приоритетность отношений с соседями и предложен подход "Взгляд на Восток", который подразумевает формирование баланса во внешнеполитической стратегии Ирана по всем направлениям, особенно на азиатском векторе. There are several prerequisites for such a change:

First, under the administration of former Iranian President Raisi, relations with neighbors were prioritized and the "Look East" approach was proposed, which entails creating a balance in Iran's foreign policy strategy across all areas, particularly in Asia.

Second, Iran's approach to Central Asia was in sync with Russia and China's strategies in the region and was not an alternative. Iran, to some extent, used an "outsourcing" mechanism to advance its interests in Central Asia, which no longer works in the new reality.

Third, Iran has traditionally been more involved and focused on the Middle East, but events in Syria have demonstrated that little progress has been made in this area. The new geopolitical reality in the South Caucasus also requires a new policy, as existing mechanisms are unable to ensure the achievement of Iranian interests. Thus, the future of Iranian-Central Asian relations largely depends on the willingness of the parties to maintain close cooperation. Central Asian states intend to use the Iranian route both to increase their exports and to gain access to warm seas. Under the new circumstances, Central Asian states are facing new restrictions due to the resumption of international sanctions against Iran. Therefore, a balance must be found between new challenges and visible opportunities.

Sherali RIZOYON, political scientist, Tajikistan

Source: Cronos.Asia