By 2024, Turkmenistan will remain the largest exporter of pipeline gas to China with deliveries of more than 45 billion cubic meters a year, while Russia will annually deliver 35 billion cubic meters during this period. This is stated in the latest report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) “Gas 2019”.
In the meantime, China is set to become the world’s largest LNG importer by 2024 – and the largest pipeline gas importer by 2022. Pipeline gas imports to the PRC will double to 100 billion cubic meters by 2024, thanks to deliveries from Russia and Central Asia, mainly Turkmenistan, while LNG imports will reach 109 billion cubic meters.
The IEA report underlined that the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the single largest contributor to trade growth. “In the absence of confirmed investment plans from Qatar, the United States will become the world’s largest LNG exporter with 113 billion cubic meters in 2024,” the report stated.
New US capacity combined with the ramping up of Australian and Russian infrastructure is expected to account for almost 90% of additional exports.
The IEA also forecasts that gas shortages in Europe will increase amid a decline in local production. “The gradual halt gas production at Groningen field, as well as a drop in production in the North Sea, will create additional demand for 50 billion cubic meters of gas a year. It is expected that it will be covered by both pipeline and LNG gas from traditional and new sources,” the report said.
According to IEA report, natural gas demand grew 4.6% – up to 3.9 trillion cubic meters, its fastest annual pace since 2010, with gas accounting for 45% of the total increase in primary energy consumption worldwide. Global natural gas consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent to 2024, returning to the pre-2017 trend.
In five years, by 2024, gas consumption is forecast to exceed 4.3 trillion cubic meters, the IEA forecasted. The report showed that natural gas consumption is forecast to grow in almost all regions with the highest growth rate of demand in the Asia-Pacific region – by 4% a year, and the lowest rate in Europe – by 0.1% a year.