The Trans-Anatolian pipeline – TANAP – will begin operating at full capacity on November 30 this year. It is part of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) project, through which Caspian gas will go to Europe. According to Gazeta.Ru, Turkmenistan is also planning to join the project, which could create competition for Gazprom to supply fuel to Europe and Turkey.
“Many politicians in Europe believe that TANAP will become a real competitor to Russian Gazprom to supply fuel to Europe and Turkey,” says Mikhail Kogan, head of the analytical research department at the Higher School of Financial Management.
However, experts interviewed by Gazeta.Ru believe that in the current configuration the project will not constitute serious competition for Gazprom.
The design capacity of the TANAP pipe passing through the territory of Turkey is only 31 billion cubic meters per year, and now 16 billion cubic meters only. Turkey needs 6 billion of this volume. That is, only 10 billion cubic meters can reach Europe.
“In order for the SGC project to really become a threat to Gazprom, it is necessary to implement all phases of the project with the addition of gas from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijani gas, which will bring the design capacity to 60 cubic meters per year,” notes Mikhail Kogan.
According to him, “the main danger for Russia from the Southern Gas Corridor is accession of Turkmenistan to the project.”
Gennady Nikolaev, an expert at the Academy of Financial and Investment Management, spoke about the possibility of Turkmenistan joining the Southern Gas Corridor, and that this could hinder it.
According to him, so far there is no definite decision on how exactly Turkmenistan will transfer gas to Europe, since it will not work to build a pipe directly to Azerbaijan in the Caspian – Russia and Iran are opposed to this project.
“The reason – exactly the same as that of Denmark in the issue of laying the Nord Stream – 2 pipes along the bottom of the Baltic – is a threat to the environment. In reality, this means that “we don’t want to create competitors with our own hands,” the analyst explains.
Here you can only thank the Russian expert for honesty and directness. However, we had previously guessed that the point here was not the fragile ecology of the Caspian, but the desire to use non-market methods in market competition. Thus, after such statements, environmentalists should not worry.